Wednesday, October 14, 2009

WEEK 6 NFL PREDICTIONS



1:00
Detroit @ Green Bay: The Packers are coming off a bye week, and are playing at home against one of the worst teams in the NFL. The potential lone bright spot for Detroit, who ranks 15th in total sacks(10), in this one is that they are playing the team who has allowed the most sacks in the league(20). As long as the Packers O-Line protects Rodgers, look for him to throw for 300+ yards with a couple touchdowns against Detroit who has allowed the most passing touchdowns(15) in the league. Win: PACKERS

Baltimore @ Vikings: The "Old" vs. the "New." Brett Favre looks to improve to 6-0, while the young impressive Flacco looks to top an all-time great. Although the QB battle is interesting, look for the Minnesota offense to go through "All Day" Peterson. Cedric Benson, of Cincinnati, continued his hot streak against the Ravens last week, making Peterson's chances pretty good for a big game this week. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee will be stopped by Minnesota's tough rush defense, so the pressure falls on the young QB and his passing offense(7th). Great game here, toss up goes to the home-field advantage. Win: VIKINGS

Houston @ Cincinnati: Carson Palmer is back to becoming an elite QB, and I believe Cincinnati's 15th ranked passing offense continues to climb the ladder against the 19th ranked Houston pass defense. The sudden improvement in the passing game could be thanks to the emergence of Cedric Benson who ran well against Baltimore, opening up room for Carson Palmer, Chad Ocho Cinco and company. I look for him to repeat that performance against a less physical Texans defense. If Schaub and Andre Johnson can connect for Houston, their 3rd ranked passing offense can take advantage of a feeble 23rd ranked Cincinnati pass defense. Again, should be a great game and the toss up again goes to the home team. Win: BENGALS.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh: Derek Anderson went 2-17 against Buffalo's 22nd ranked total defense, and this week he faces a much bigger challenge against the Steeler's 9th ranked defense. Although I can't see him doing much worst then last week, he probably will be just as ineffective throwing for 0 touchdowns. The Steelers seem to be getting it together and the return of Polamalu and Parker should give them more balance, while the Browns look like a NCAA team week in and week out. Not much to say in this match up. Win: STEELERS




New York Giants @ New Orleans: 5-0 v 4-0. One of these teams will be handed their first loss of the season while the other will remain perfect. Eli vs. Brees? I'll take Brees early, and Manning on last second drives. We have seen Eli pull off game winning drives, but haven't quite seen Brees pull through in the clutch, although he is very capable of doing so. Accuracy vs. Clutch, since this is a close game I will take clutch with Eli. Both the Giants(1) and the Saints(3) are at the top of the league in total defense, so the QB's are going to receive a lot of pressure. With Eli nursing a heel injury, expect the Saints to blitz him hard leaving room for the powerful Giants running game (3rd in rushing offense) to attempt to take over the game against the 2nd ranked rush defense. The Saints have scored the most points per game (36), while the Giants have scored the 4th most per game (30.2). The Saints have allowed the 7th least amount of points per game (16.5) and the Giants the 2nd (14.2), so on both sides of the ball this is going to be a battle. The Giants have seen a fairly easy schedule (opponents record: 6-19) compared to the more proven Saints (opponents record: 8-11) who are also coming off a bye and playing at home. Tough Decision. Win: SAINTS

St. Louis @ Jacksonville: Not a game I care to watch. It is not going to be exciting, there is no playoff potential here for either team, and I don't have anybody on any of my fantasy teams from either of these clubs. But I will delve into it. The Jaguars have been very inconsistent on offense, and are in the bottom 3 in the league in total defense. To pair with these already problematic areas are the off the field issues popping up in the past week. For St. Louis, Bulger returns to try and save the day against the 30th ranked pass defense, perhaps opening up the rush attack as a result of an improved passing game. This may be the best opportunity for Donnie Avery to connect with Marc Bulger, and I look for an aggravated Stephen Jackson to try and prove that he is part of the leagues elite. I'm going out on a limb here. Win: RAMS

Carolina @ Tampa Bay: Another crappy game. 1-3 vs. 0-5. DeAngelo Williams of Carolina has averaged only 3.7 yards per carry with just two touchdowns on the year. His 220 total yards is good for 29th in the league. Jake Delhomme has been all-time terrible this year ranking 24th in the NFL with only 782 total yards while leading the league in interceptions with eight. Despite Williams problems, against a 28th ranked Tampa Bay rush defense, I see him having a breakout game. Tampa Bays quarterback is Byron Leftwich? I missed out on that, had to look it up, but there is a good reason we haven't heard from him. He is 30th in the league in passing yards, and has thrown for 4-TD/3-INT. Terrible. Tampa Bays backfield is beat up, and they are going to have to rely on Derrick Ward who is just returning from injury himself. Their defense is out of character, which finally gives Carolina a chance to improve and take a win on the road. Win: PANTHERS

Kansas City @ Washington: Another week, another bum team Washington has to face. Ugh, gross game here. The Redskins barely escaped with a victory against the Rams at home, they gave Detroit their first win ending their 19 game losing streak, barely edged out Tampa Bay at home, and gave Carolina their only victory of the year last week. So don't overlook Kansas City in this one. Although KC is winless, outside of Oakland, they have played more proven teams (Baltimore, Philadelphia, Giants and Dallas), so Washington could provide another team with their lone win, but the match up just isn't there, sorry Chief. Kansas City, 28th in total offense and dead last in total defense, vs. Washington, 17th in total offense, and 9th in total defense. Not too much to look to deeply into on this one. Clinton Portis will have his biggest game of the year and strictly basing my decision on the numbers here, I'm going with the home team. Win: REDSKINS.

4:00
Philadelphia @ Oakland: Antonio Pierce said it all in an interview with Sirius NFL radio, following his New York Giants smashing of the Raiders; "I do not like knocking teams. But right now, they're struggling. We're playing that game the other day and, honestly, it felt like a scrimmage, like a practice. It felt like we were going against our offense (in a controlled setting) as far as the tempo. "There was no vibe of trying or effort from the Raiders at all from a defensive standpoint against their offense. We're getting three-and-outs. You don't hear nobody (saying), 'Hey, let's go!' trying to pick the guys up, rallying them, getting guys fired up. There was nothing. It was quiet. A guy gets sacked or somebody gets beat, they just get up. It's not like there's yelling or no kind of (emotion) about the way they were playing." Oakland is dead last in the league in total offense and 31st in total defense. EASY pick with a healthy Eagles team against the laughing stock of the NFL. Win: EAGLES

Arizona @ Seattle: Seattles defense looks healthy again, and Houshmandzadeh had his first big game in Matt Hasselback's first game back. If Hasselback can be bought some time by his offensive line, look for him to expose an Arizona pass defense that has allowed the most passing yard per game (303) in the entire NFL. The Seahawks are on the rise and play in arguably the loudest stadium in the country, giving them a huge home field advantage. They are going to need it against a potent Arizona passing attack to perhaps cause some false starts and throw off the rhythm of Kurt Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin and company. The Seahawks are healthy on both sides of the ball, and the pieces are starting to come together. After a big game last week, the confidence has grown and they take on the Cardinals at home. Win: SEAHAWKS.

Tennessee @ New England: Ouch, the Colts and Patriots in back to back weeks. The Titans secondary is beat up, allowing the second most amount of passing yards per game. Brady hasn't been Brady, but he is still putting up 261 yards per game. When given a chance to pick apart a weakness, Brady will throw all over the field. Tennessee has defended the run well, ranking 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game allowed (93.5), and with Taylor out with injury for the Patriots, the Titans can focus solely on exposing the weakness of a not always so reliable Samuel Morris. That puts the Patriots attention on opening up their passing game, which usually ends up to a victory for Brady and the Pats. After all, the Titans have let up the most passing yards in the AFC. Win: PATRIOTS

Buffalo @ New York Jets: Last week Buffalo lost to Cleveland, who has allowed 24.2 points per game (23rd ranked) INCLUDING the game against Buffalo in which the Bills only scored 3 points. The Jets have allowed only 17.6 points per game, so look for Buffalo to struggle once again. The Bills have allowed 154.6 rush yards per game opening the game up for Thomas Jones, and Washington to have a field day. Pressure off the young Sanchize quarterback at home against a not so physical Buffalo defense. The Jets are an exciting team. A rookie QB out performing his expectations paired with a big midseason acquisition in Braylon Edwards, who with only a couple of days to learn the offense put up 5 receptions with 64 yards and 1 TD against the Dolphins, and the return of Rex Ryan's new toy Calvin Pace. North America's team hasn't seen anything from T.O., or the anemic offense in general, and the Jets are getting better. Win: J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS!


[i]8:20[/i] - Watch the game live, for free at NBC SPORTS

CHICAGO @ Atlanta: Bear down, Chicago Bears! This one should be a dozy folks. With Atlanta pinned as a favorite at home, Jay Cutler and his young weapons look to impress the NFL national audience more then their first appearance on national t.v. against Green Bay this season. The Bears look for revenge from a last second drive lose to the Falcons last year, and this time they are little more qualified to do so. Atlanta is 24th in the league in rushing yards allowed, so the Bears are going to have to rely on a strong performance by Matt Forte against a newly rejuvenated Atlanta LB core. Hopefully this opens up the passing game, where after a bye week, Cutler and his receivers look to improve yet again. Thanks to the bye week, injuries to Hester and Knox had time to heal and the offense should be in full force. Although young, Matt Ryan doesn't make many mistakes. If the Bears front line can continue to put pressure on the QB, they can force errors by Matt Ryan, and hopefully avoid Roddy White from having a repeat performance of last week (8 receptions, 210 yards and 2 TDs). If they can do that, it still doesn't mean victory. Michael Turner and Atlanta's run game also had their best week (97 yards, 3 TD's 4.4 yards/carry) so far against a previously strong San Francisco defense. If the Bears stop the run game, Atlanta's passing game will have a hard time getting going. Atlanta plays well at home, but hopefully in a shootout, the Bears are more qualified on offense to edge out a tough Falcons team. Win: DA BEARS

MNF
Denver @ San Diego: Denver is still undefeated? Really? Wow, what a difference a coach makes, and what a difference we have seen in this Bronco's defense. The Bronco's have allowed only 8.6 points per game, good for best in the NFL. They have allowed only 252.8 total yards per game which is only second to the Giants. They have allowed the fewest passing scores (2) in the league and have 16 sacks on the season which is only 2nd behind the Vikings. The Chargers find themselves dead last in the league in rushing yards per game (53.8), so look for Philip Rivers to take his chances in the air against the pressure by the dominant defensive line of the Bronco's and solid secondary. On the other side of the ball, Orton has remained impressive with 7-TDs/1-INT on the year. Brandon Marshall has returned with vengeance, showing all fantasy owners that they were stupid for not picking him up earlier, and McDaniel's seems to have this team all working on the same page again. On top of that, with Buckhalter injured, Knowshon Moreno, who leads rookies with 337 rushing yards, has a chance to shine and show that he is a premier NFL running back. Although San Diego ranks amongst the top 10 in the league in protecting the pass, they only have recorded 6 sacks on the season. Kyle Orton doesn't overwhelm an opposing defense, but when he is under pressure he may make some mistakes. The Chargers need to shake him up, and force the hand of the generally safe approach of Kyle Orton. Moreno runs for over 100 yards with a score, and the defense keeps Rivers and company in check. I can't believe this, but I see Denver remaining un beaten. Win: BRONCOS

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