Week 7 NFL Predictions

1:00

Indianapolis @ St. Louis – The Colts are coming off a bye week that they didn’t even need.  They are undefeated with Manning throwing for over 300 yards in every game he has played. Look for him to throw for 400 (I wouldn’t be surprised) this week against a St. Louis team that has allowed an average of 252 yards/game, which is the 4^th most yards per game given up in the NFL.  The Colts have surprised everyone on the defensive side of the ball allowing only 14.2 points/game, which is 2nd in the NFL, behind the Broncos.  Look for that number to improve against an anemic Rams offense that sits dead last in the NFL, averaging a dismal 9 points/game. The Colts have won 14 regular season games in a row, look for them to make that 15 against arguably the worst team in the NFL. Win: COLTS

New England @ Tampa Bay – If there was any concern over Tom Brady, and how he is adjusting post-injury, I think he has pushed it behind him. Last week, Brady threw for 380 yards with six touchdowns IN THE SNOW! Yea, that game was in New England, which does pose a threat for most opposing teams, but this away game is being played in London, offering no home field advantage for the struggling Buccaneers.  What surprises me this year is the absence of the Tampa Bay defense. They have lost their identity and now have to face one of the most prolific offenses in the game.  The Patriots have allowed only 293.3 yards/game, which is just above Tampa Bay’s average of 277 yards/game on offense.  The Bucs have allowed 13 passing touchdowns on the year (30^th), and the Patriots have scored on 12 passing touchdowns (half of them coming last week) which is tied for 3^rd in the NFL. Maroney had his first 100+ yard game last week, which opened up the passing attack, and I don’t think the 31^st ranked Tampa rush defense is going to slow him down either.  Win: PATRIOTS.

San Francisco @ Houston:  The 49ers have performed well for most of the season because of their stout defense, and Houston has dramatically improved their offense with the most under-rated QB in football, Matt Schaub. A few things to note this week on the offensive side of the ball for San Francisco:  Frank Gore is returning to the lineup, coming off an ankle injury, looking to bring back their rush attack, and after a long holdout, Michael Crabtree makes his NFL debut hoping to create a passing threat San Francisco has yet to find this year (30^th ranked). With the re-emergence of the 49ers rush attack, the passing game should show up, giving Crabtree an opportunity to have a grand entrance to the NFL.  As for the Texans, Matt Schaub has become an elite NFL quarterback, ranking at the top of the league in most categories: 14 TD’s (1^st), 1810 yards (2^nd).  Naturally, this inflates Andre Johnson’s numbers: 4 TD’s (2^nd), and 572 yards (2^nd).  Playing at home, look for these two to connect and expose an overrated San Francisco defense which allowed a season high 45 points against Atlanta – at home.  This game is being played away with an improved Texans team that proposes the biggest offensive threat of the season, and who is also coming off a huge win on the road at Cincinnati. Win: TEXANS. 

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh – I can’t believe the Vikings are still undefeated and Brett Favre is looking good enough to make his third pro-bowl in a row.  They have put up the second most points/game in the league (31.5) thanks to a dynamic run game and a veteran leader behind center.  Adrian Peterson leads the league in rushing yards (618), and is second in total TD’s (7).  He is a force that won’t be stopped, unless of course you are playing in Pittsburgh.  Polamalu is healthy again, and expect this game to be played in a cold environment.  This should be a true test to Brett Favre, and I believe he has his worst game of the year in these conditions.  Believe it or not, Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense has put up 315 passing yards/game (2^nd in the NFL), allowing Hines Ward to lead the league in receiving yards (599).  Minnesota has been on the decline on defense, while Pittsburgh seems to have improved on offense. This strong defense in a tough place to play is going to stop Favre, Peterson and company, and I believe their offense does just enough to pull off the win to give the Vikings their first loss of the season.  Win: STEELERS

San Diego @ Kansas City – Believe it or not, I see this being a pretty good game.  Matt Cassel has been more careful with the football lately, throwing for 132 consecutive passes without an interception.  Dwayne Bowe has become his favorite target, last week pulling down six receptions for 109 yards.  But in order to keep any kind of offensive rhythm, Larry Johnson needs to continue his slow crawl of improvement against the 23^rd ranked rush defense of the Chargers who have let up 141 rushing yards/game (27^th) and six rushing touchdowns (24^th).  LJ should get his first TD of the year.  Kansas City will have to beat the Chargers on the ground, to open up the passing game for Cassel and Bowe (who seems to be his only target).  On the other side of the ball, Tomlinson is healthy, which brings back together the two headed rush attack with Sproles.  The not so tough Kansas City defense will have a harder time then they did last week against Washington, allowing only six points.  That being said, Kansas City is a tough place to play, and I expect home field advantage to give them a boost.  This is an old rivalry, and I expect them to duke it out. Win: CHEIFS! 

Green Bay @ Cleveland – About the only thing the Browns have going for them in this game is that they have a strong pass rush.  I still don’t see that working out for them, because they stink in every other aspect of the game.  Their offense doesn’t exist, and against the 3-4 scheme of the Packers, which they are now adjusted to, Anderson won’t be able to get much going.  Unless Jamal Lewis runs for 200+ yards, which won’t happen, this is going to be an easy game for the Packers. Win: PACKERS.

4:00

CHICAGO @ Cincinnati – This game makes me nervous, and Chad OchoCinco has already begun his trash talking, although it’s all in good fun.  Tillman is going to have a tough match up against Chad, but he has handled other premier WR’s so far this year and I hope that continues, Johnson is due for a bad game.  Cedric Benson is playing his first game against his former team, and I don’t think the Bears will allow him to perform like he has so far this year.  Benson is a surprising third in the NFL with 531 yards, showing the Bears he has had it all along (ugh).  This week, Gaines Adams makes his Bears debut, to add to the 6^th ranked rush defense that allows an average of 88.4 yards/game to hopefully slow the Bengals rush attack.  This should give Tillman and the Bears secondary a chance to key in on the always dangerous Carson Palmer and his offensive weapons.  Matt Forte is still looking for his mojo, which would be a difficult task against the Bengals defense if it weren’t for the season ending surgery to Antwan Odom.  This will give Cutler more time in the pocket, and will also allow for more holes to be opened for Matt Forte.  The Bengals have allowed 255 passing yard/game (28^th in the NFL), and have only 5 interceptions on the year.  If Jay Cutler can put up a 100 + passer rating, he is 13-0 in his career, and the Bears will have the win.  Forte will have his breakthrough game, opening it up for Cutler while Gaines Adams and the Bears defense will stop Benson allowing them to focus on and slow the passing game. Win: BEARS.

Buffalo @ Carolina – Useless.  The winner of this game just shows that they are the superior dreadful team.  Trent Edwards suffered a concussion last Sunday, and is most likely out for this week’s game against the Panthers.  So that leaves the Bills with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who led the Bills to overtime win last Sunday, and looks to ignite an offense that has been non-existent all year, averaging only 15.5 points/game(26^th).  Trent Edwards and his 27^th ranked passer rating (73.0) won’t be missed too much.  This is not the Bills main concern though.  Buffalo ranks dead last in the NFL defending the run, making this week’s match up in Carolina a major mismatch.  The duo attack of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will throw the Bills defense off balance and put up enough points to edge out a Bills team that has yet to get it together.  When Jonathan Stewart gets at least 14 carries, the Panthers are 9-0, and against the worst team in defending the run I believe Carolina will go forward with a run heavy attack, beginning to end. Win: PANTHERS.

NYJ @ Oakland - It looks like the Jets are coming back down to Earth, losing their last three games after starting the season 3-0.  Part of the reason is that Mark Sanchez is finally looking like a Rookie, coming off his worst game of the year, throwing for five interceptions with a fumble at home against the Bills. To make matters worse the Jets lost their veteran defensive leader, Kris Jenkins, who would have caused a fit for the confused JeMarcus Russell (he’ll still be confused).  This game is being played on the road, against a Raiders team that is riding high after their upset over a very strong Philadelphia Eagles team.  Russell will have more opportunity against the Jets defense, but then again he hasn’t done anything all year.  Although I don’t think Sanchez and the Jets will be as bad as last week, their momentum is taking them down and Oakland is in the process of building some of their own, riding their high. Win: RAIDERS

Atlanta @ Dallas – The Falcons are coming off two big wins against the 49ers and the Bears, while Dallas has fallen in the two games that actually proposed a challenge to them (Giants, Denver) while defeating only bottom of the league teams (TB, Carolina, KC).  Atlanta is no bottom of the league team, sitting in second place in the NFC south at 4-1 behind only the undefeated Saints.  That being said, I think Dallas gets out of their funk this week and propose a threat to the young Matt Ryan and company at “Jerry World”.  Coming off a bye week, both Marion Barber and Felix Jones should be healthy and should be able to pound the ball against a team that has allowed 118.2 rushing yards per game (23^rd). Dallas has lately been showing a change in identity, turning into a 50-50 pass/run offense, perhaps to make up for Romo’s poor play.  Roy Williams should be healthy again as well, but his performance will be determined by which Tony Romo decides to show up.  With a strong running game to be expected, the passing game should open up and Tony Romo should have one of his better games of the year (it won’t take much).  Win:  COWBOYS

New Orleans @ Miami – With the Saints victory over the Giants last week, they have proven that their undefeated start is no fluke.   The Saints are good on both sides of the ball, but this year they are great on the defensive end.  Miami is all about the run, 177 yards/game (1^st), thanks to their successful “wildcat” formation and the double threat of Ronnie Brown and Rickie Williams.  The Saints defensive strength is defending the run allowing only 83.4 rushing yards/game (5^th) so this matchup proposes their biggest challenge and perhaps causes them to struggle for the first time all year.  The same can be said on the other side of the ball.  The Saints average 157.8 yards/game on the ground (4^th), and the Dolphins have proven stingy against the run, allowing an average of only 76.4 yards/game (3^rd).  This game has great matchups and I haven’t even mentioned the name, Drew Brees.  The quarterback matchup is unbalanced, with Brees vs. Henne, but I believe the Miami defense shakes up the Saints offense, and their offense will give the Saints their biggest challenge this year.  Miami gives the Saints a taste of their own medicine. Win: DOLPHINS

8:20  Watch the game LIVE

Arizona @ NYG – Last week’s match up against the Saints have left the Giants with a bad taste in their mouths.  Previously unbeaten, the Giants and their acclaimed defense were exposed, allowing 48 points to the Saints, who ran all over the Giants.  The Saints 124 yards on the ground and three rushing touchdowns exposed the Giants rush defense, which isn’t their defensive strength.  Their strength is in the pass defense which has allowed only 149 yards/game (1^st).  Their in luck! Arizona doesn’t threaten the Giants rush defense, averaging only 57.6 yards/game, which is good for last in the NFL.  Their strength is in the passing game with Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Breaston etc.. Fitzgerald leads all WR’s with five touchdowns, and the Cardinals offense has put up 280 yards/game (6^th).  But, to their chagrin, that’s the part of the game the Giants defend best, allowing only 149 yards/game (1^st).  If the Giants could slow Arizona’s passing game, they will be forced to beat them with the run which hasn’t proven successful for the Cardinals.  Especially in New York: Win: GIANTS

MNF

Philadelphia @ Washington – This is the worst Monday Night Football game so far this year.  Washington has problems all over the place.  They are 2-4, defeating only bottom of the league teams (TB, St. Louis).  Every week, analyst as well as the Redskins keep thinking Campbell will have a big game, which he hasn’t, and Clinton Portis hasn’t been the threat he is expected to be.  The Eagles are coming off a terrible loss to the Raiders, which I have yet to put together in my head, and I don’t expect them to lose in two straight upsets to two terrible teams.  Michael Vick hasn’t been a factor in any game, and McNabb is proving pretty inconsistent in not using his weapons to their fullest, which is more on Andy Reid then anything.  Look for that to change.  Without delving into the specifics, McNabb and Westbrook will inject their veteran leadership into this game and won’t show up unprepared. Win: EAGLES

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